Monday, May 07, 2007
How Some of the West was Lost
Good ol' Tom DeLay has an op-ed piece that appeared on politico.com. DeLay's main point seems to be that Democrats gained precious little ground in the Western United States during the 2006 mid-term elections. And what ground Democrats gained, Democrats could easily cede in 2008:
Guess what? Believe it or not, I agree with Tom DeLay! Well, except when he talks about the "other side of the Mississippi River". From my vantage point, it is this side of the Mississippi River. But I understand that Mr. DeLay is now a Virginian. For that matter, Mr. DeLay enjoyed the smell of Washington DC's marble long before he quit being the Representative from TX22, so I understand why he thinks we live on the "other side of the Mississippi River".
The complaint I have about Mr. DeLay's article is what he doesn't say. Mr. DeLay looks at the six House seats the GOP lost in the West. I assume he's talking about AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07, TX-22 and TX-23. Corruption played a leading role in fully half of those seats, but Mr. DeLay doesn't mention that. (It is clear that Mr. DeLay considers Texas as part of the West. Four other seats were lost west of the Mississippi, IA-01, IA-02, KS-02* and MN-01, but I strongly suspect that Mr. DeLay categorizes those seats as being in the Midwest.)
Let's look at each of those Western seats individually:
None of these losses were really seismic events. The most surprising, I guess, was the loss of AZ-08, the open seat that Randy Graf sought. Republicans should have an easy shot at winning the seats lost due to corruption (including TX-22) as long as they nominate clean candidates. The scary part is that the Republican Party, like Tom DeLay himself, can't seem to come to the conclusion that corruption played a huge role in the 2006 mid-terms. If the party doesn't know what went wrong, they can't fix it. Republicans will certainly reaquire TX-22, but other landmines exist (Rep. Doolittle [CA], Rep. Renzi [AZ], Rep. Feeney [FL], Rep. Lewis [CA] and Rep. Miller [CA]) if the Party doesn't take the corruption issue seriously. Worse, if the Party doesn't act decisively, the corruption issue may affect the GOP as a whole instead of largely affecting only the corrupt candidates.
And why does Mr. DeLay attack the good folks in CA-11? They live in their "own world"? CA-11 includes wonderful cities like Tracy and Lodi. Not exactly San Francisco or Berkeley. Maybe this is just another example of Mr. DeLay attacking anti-corruption Republicans.
As the Wall Street Journal said, a GOP victory in 2008 is a perishable fruit. The Republican Party needs to get serious about eradicating corruption from its ranks. Tom DeLay is clearly in denial. Let's hope the rest of the party isn't.
The loss of a few seats on the other side of the Mississippi River during the 2006 election cycle wasn't much of a trend in itself; it was simply the Western part of an electoral thumpin'. Republicans lost 30 seats. By my count, we lost nine in the Midwest, four in the South, 12 in the Northeast and six in the West. And even those six deserve something of an asterisk: One of them was in California, which is basically its own world rather than a part of a broader region in the traditional sense. Two of them were in Texas, which could just as easily be classified as part of the South rather than the West (and one of those was in Texas' 22nd, where the Republicans had no nominee and instead ran a write-in campaign).
Guess what? Believe it or not, I agree with Tom DeLay! Well, except when he talks about the "other side of the Mississippi River". From my vantage point, it is this side of the Mississippi River. But I understand that Mr. DeLay is now a Virginian. For that matter, Mr. DeLay enjoyed the smell of Washington DC's marble long before he quit being the Representative from TX22, so I understand why he thinks we live on the "other side of the Mississippi River".
The complaint I have about Mr. DeLay's article is what he doesn't say. Mr. DeLay looks at the six House seats the GOP lost in the West. I assume he's talking about AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-07, TX-22 and TX-23. Corruption played a leading role in fully half of those seats, but Mr. DeLay doesn't mention that. (It is clear that Mr. DeLay considers Texas as part of the West. Four other seats were lost west of the Mississippi, IA-01, IA-02, KS-02* and MN-01, but I strongly suspect that Mr. DeLay categorizes those seats as being in the Midwest.)
Let's look at each of those Western seats individually:
AZ-05 (Rep. JD Hayworth defeated)
Wife Mary Hayworth may be worthy of "Wives Club" status. Strong Abramoff influence in this race.
AZ-08 (Open Seat; formerly held by Rep. Jim Kolbe)
Rep. Kolbe did not run for re-election, and open seats are always harder to defend. Republican Party nominated a weak candidate named Randy Graf. Conventional wisdom is that Mr. Graf lost by running a divisive anti-immigrant campaign. Corruption not an issue in this race.
CA-11 (Rep. Richard Pombo defeated)
Rep. Pombo clearly had Abramoff problems. Lots of Abramoff money flowed his way, and Pombo championed federal recognition of the Mashpee, an Indian tribe in Massachusetts. Yes, the Mashpee were an Abramoff client.
CO-07 (Rep. Bob Beauprez defeated)
In 2004, Rep. Beauprez only won by 121 votes. This seat was naturally precarious for the GOP. Corruption not an issue in this race.
TX-22 (Open Seat; formerly held by Rep. Tom DeLay)
Need I say more? Obviously corruption led to the loss of this seat. For some inexplicable reason, Republicans nominated the extremely weak DeLay even though he could not win the general election due to his corruption. Mr. DeLay eventually resigned rather than face defeat. Christine DeLay is clearly a member of the "Wives Club".
TX-23 (Rep. Henry Bonilla defeated)
Large demographic change after court-ordered redistricting. Corruption not an issue in this race.
None of these losses were really seismic events. The most surprising, I guess, was the loss of AZ-08, the open seat that Randy Graf sought. Republicans should have an easy shot at winning the seats lost due to corruption (including TX-22) as long as they nominate clean candidates. The scary part is that the Republican Party, like Tom DeLay himself, can't seem to come to the conclusion that corruption played a huge role in the 2006 mid-terms. If the party doesn't know what went wrong, they can't fix it. Republicans will certainly reaquire TX-22, but other landmines exist (Rep. Doolittle [CA], Rep. Renzi [AZ], Rep. Feeney [FL], Rep. Lewis [CA] and Rep. Miller [CA]) if the Party doesn't take the corruption issue seriously. Worse, if the Party doesn't act decisively, the corruption issue may affect the GOP as a whole instead of largely affecting only the corrupt candidates.
And why does Mr. DeLay attack the good folks in CA-11? They live in their "own world"? CA-11 includes wonderful cities like Tracy and Lodi. Not exactly San Francisco or Berkeley. Maybe this is just another example of Mr. DeLay attacking anti-corruption Republicans.
As the Wall Street Journal said, a GOP victory in 2008 is a perishable fruit. The Republican Party needs to get serious about eradicating corruption from its ranks. Tom DeLay is clearly in denial. Let's hope the rest of the party isn't.
* KS-02 was another Republican loss linked to corruption. It was formerly held by Jim Ryun. Mr. Ryun had a suspicious real estate deal with Ed Buckham.
# posted by ACR @ Monday, May 07, 2007 
